Around The League
The league is starting to find its rhythm as we enter the third week of the season. Joel Embiid made his much-anticipated return to the court last night, playing on a 25-minute restriction but looking dominant nonetheless. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are scorching hot, winning three straight games on the back of Trey Murphy III, who is averaging an incredible 5.3 three-pointers over that stretch. Now, let's dive into this week's data-driven insights to give you the edge you need to dominate your matchup.
This Week's Highlights
- Schedule Advantage (4 Games): ATL, DET, HOU, SAC
- Waiver-Wire Top Adds: Keyonte George (UTA), Larry Nance Jr. (NOP), Goga Bitadze (ORL)
- Waiver-Wire Drop List: Patrick Williams (CHI), Royce O'Neale (PHX), Talen Horton-Tucker (UTA)
- The Trade Market: Buy Low: LaMelo Ball, Jalen Williams | Sell High: Brook Lopez, Paul Reed
- Rotation Report: Paul Reed (⬆️ mins - Embiid restriction) | De'Andre Hunter (⬇️ out 2-3 weeks, ankle sprain)
The Weekly Slate
Here’s a look at the teams with heavy and light schedules for the upcoming week.
4 Game Week
| Team | Opponents |
|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | ORL (10/6), CHA (10/8), TOR (10/10), MIA (10/12) |
| Detroit Pistons | WAS (10/7), CLE (10/8), NYK (10/10), BKN (10/11) |
| Houston Rockets | OKC (10/6), DEN (10/8), SAC (10/10), LAL (10/12) |
| Sacramento Kings | GSW (10/7), HOU (10/10), SAS (10/11), DAL (10/12) |
3 Game Week
| Team | Opponents |
|---|
| Boston Celtics | IND (10/7), PHI (10/9), NYK (10/11) |
| Chicago Bulls | MIL (10/6), BKN (10/8), MIA (10/10) |
Owning The Waiver Wire
Here are the top players to target this week and a few to reconsider, based on recent trends and their upcoming schedule.
Trending Up 📈
Walker Kessler (UTA - C)
Weekly Schedule: MEM, POR, LAL
Recent Trend: Averaging 9.5 rebounds and 3.1 blocks over the last 7 days, significantly outperforming his season baseline.
The Schedule Effect: +2.1 REB, +0.8 BLK, +1.5 PTS
Jaden Ivey (DET - PG/SG)
Weekly Schedule: WAS, CLE, NYK, BKN
Recent Trend: His usage rate has climbed to 28% in the last three games with Cade Cunningham nursing a sore ankle, leading to more scoring and assist opportunities.
The Schedule Effect: +3.5 PTS, +1.8 AST, +0.5 3PM
Herb Jones (NOP - SF/PF)
Weekly Schedule: DAL, CHI, MIN
Recent Trend: A defensive monster, he's generated 8 stocks (steals + blocks) in his last two games alone.
The Schedule Effect: +0.8 STL, +0.4 BLK, -1.2 TO
Trending Down 📉
Nic Claxton (BKN - C)
Weekly Schedule: MIA, CHI, DET
Recent Trend: Facing foul trouble recently, his minutes have been inconsistent, dipping below 25 in two of his last four games.
The Schedule Effect: -1.5 REB, -0.6 BLK, +0.7 PF
Tyus Jones (WAS - PG)
Weekly Schedule: DET, CHA, ORL
Recent Trend: The return of Jordan Poole to the primary ballhandler role has seen Tyus's assist numbers drop from 8.1 to 5.4 over the last week.
The Schedule Effect: -1.9 AST, -2.2 PTS, +0.8 TO
Keldon Johnson (SAS - SF)
Weekly Schedule: MIN, SAC, NOP
Recent Trend: His field goal percentage has cratered to 35% over the last four games as he struggles to find his shot.
The Schedule Effect: -4.1% FG%, -3.8 PTS, -1.1 REB
*Schedule Effect projections are based on players’ historical performance against this week's opponents and data-driven matchup analysis
Our Picks - This Week’s Top Players for Each Category
| Category | Top Options (Sub-X% Rostered) |
|---|
| Points (PTS) | Grayson Allen (PHX), Tim Hardaway Jr. (DAL) |
| Rebounds (REB) | Nick Richards (CHA), Larry Nance Jr. (NOP) |
| Assists (AST) | T.J. McConnell (IND), Monte Morris (DET) |
| Steals (STL) | Alex Caruso (CHI), De'Anthony Melton (PHI) |
| Blocks (BLK) | Goga Bitadze (ORL), Daniel Gafford (WAS) |
| 3-Pointers (3PM) | Luke Kennard (MEM), Sam Hauser (BOS) |
| FG% | Dereck Lively II (DAL), Ivica Zubac (LAC) |
The Trade Market
Take advantage of fluctuating player values by targeting players in slumps and selling those who are overperforming.
Buy Low
Julius Randle (NYK - PF/C)
The Slump: Randle is shooting just 38% from the field and averaging an uncharacteristically low 7.1 rebounds over his last five games.
StatCats Take: This is a classic buy-low window. Randle's career metrics suggest a significant positive regression is coming. Exploit his current owner's frustration and acquire a top-40 asset for a discount.
LaMelo Ball (CHA - PG)
The Slump: He's been turning the ball over at a high rate (4.5 TOV) and has been hesitant to shoot since returning from a minor ankle tweak.
StatCats Take: LaMelo's talent is undeniable. As he gets his conditioning back, the production will follow. Send out offers now before he drops a 30-point triple-double and the window slams shut.
Sell High
Brook Lopez (MIL - C)
The Surge: The veteran center is currently averaging an unsustainable 3.2 blocks and shooting 45% from three-point range.
StatCats Take: Lopez is a valuable player, but this is peak production. His block rate will normalize, and it's wise to trade him for a more consistent, high-floor player before it does. See if you can package him for someone like Jaren Jackson Jr. or Evan Mobley.
Paul Reed (PHI - PF/C)
The Surge: With Joel Embiid on a minutes limit, "BBall Paul" has been a double-double machine, soaking up rebounds and easy buckets.
StatCats Take: This is the definition of a temporary value boost. Once Embiid is back to his full 34+ MPG workload, Reed's role will shrink dramatically. His value will never be higher than it is right now—cash in.
Injury & Rotation Report
On the Sidelines
Darius Garland (CLE - PG): Out 3-4 weeks (calf strain).
➡️ Increased Role: Craig Porter Jr. and Caris LeVert will see a significant bump in minutes and usage.
De'Andre Hunter (ATL - SF): Out 2-3 weeks (ankle sprain).
➡️ Increased Role: Saddiq Bey and rookie Kobe Bufkin are expected to absorb his minutes on the wing.
Jabari Smith Jr. (HOU - PF): Day-to-day (knee soreness).
➡️ Increased Role: Tari Eason and Jae'Sean Tate would be the primary beneficiaries if he misses time.
Returning to Action
Jamal Murray (DEN - PG): Expected to return this week.
➡️ Decreased Role: Reggie Jackson will return to a backup role, losing most of his fantasy value.
Tyler Herro (MIA - SG): Cleared for full practice, targeting a return next week.
➡️ Decreased Role: Josh Richardson's usage and minutes will take a notable hit.
Brandon Ingram (NOP - SF): No longer on the injury report.
➡️ Decreased Role: Dyson Daniels will see fewer minutes, and Trey Murphy III's scorching usage rate may cool down slightly.
